What is foresight?
What is foresight?
Planning of activities in the classical sense is only possible when their time horizon is relatively short. Obviously, for various types of activities this will mean a different time span. It always designates, however, a period for which we are able to specify changes to relevant parameters.
Things are completely different where we deal with a very long time, such as 20 years, which can witness radical changes to the extent that makes any extrapolation of existing knowledge impossible. In such case, there is no point in trying to plan any activities. All we can do is consider trends and fairly general scenarios, because as they say – You cannot predict the future. You can only prepare for it the best you can. In this context the concept of foresight has a variety of meanings.
First, foresight is a set of tools which facilitate the construction of fairly long-term scenarios (normally 10-20 years) or where there is a possibility of developments that are difficult to predict (e.g. in a battlefield, where the opponent attempts to apply surprising manoeuvres). For this reason, in addition to analytical methods heuristic methods (e.g. brainstorming) are also used in the process of foresight.
Second, foresight should be a continuous process in which individual “foresight thematic projects” are carried out. Such projects are normally resumed after a period in which significant changes occurred in the situation they describe. A good example may be activities carried out in Japan (8 national foresight projects) and in Germany.
Third, foresight is not a scientific approach, but a combination of four elements:
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Intuition;
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Method;
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Anticipatory analysis;
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Trends development.
TYPES OF FORESIGHT PROJECTS
The world literature recognises two general types of foresight: Regional Foresight and Technology Foresight; occasionally the term industry foresight is also used (e.g. within the scope of energy manufacture and consumption), as well as their combinations.
Elements of the technology foresight:
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Identification of key future technologies;
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Assessment of opportunities and threats to the technology;
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Identification of actions to be taken in order to develop technology;
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Creating scenarios.
Elements of the regional foresight:
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Identification of key development directions for a given region;
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Achieving social consensus with regard to development directions;
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Identification of key organisations needed to successfully pursue the directions chosen;
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Creating a co-operation network between the units undertaking the planned actions;
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Creating scenarios.
In the case of process planning we usually have a set of boundary conditions (C) and a set of status parameters (P) presenting a detailed description of the analysed area, resulting from the existing (or assumed) conditions. The result of planning is a hypothetical view of the situation with possible estimation of the probability of occurrence.
In the case of the foresight process, the starting point is also the description of the boundary conditions (Cd) and the resulting status parameters (Pd). However on the basis of such data and the results of the work of experts, a general situation development scenario is assumed (e.g. dynamic economic growth connected with investments in a selected technology sector).
The next stage involves work that is intended to determine how to shape the conditions (C1) and parameters (P1), so as to achieve the assumed scenario, and what are the possible difficulties impairing its implementation. The scenario is not limited to the area of science and technology only, containing also a description of economic and social results.
The final scenario is usually arrived at through reiteration, i.e. by repeated application of the assumed parameters (C) and (P), which is one of the characteristics of the foresight processes. The other characteristic is the consultation of initially developed scenarios with a large body of experts and stakeholders.
According to the definition provided by the Ministry of Scientific Research and Computer Science (currently the Ministry of Science and Higher Education), foresight is a process of creating in the society of a culture of thinking about the future, where scientists, engineers, and representatives of the industry or people within the public administration alike participate in designating strategic directions for the development of research and technology, in order to generate the greatest possible business and social benefits for the economy. By participating in the foresight projects, they determine the priority research directions, together creating the vision of future achievements. Apart from immediate goals (creating scenarios), foresight is very important in terms of satisfying the demand for scientific, business and cultural know how, which is of primary significance for example for the investment policy of the state in the area of research and development.
Kuciński J., Organizacja i prowadzenie projektów foresight w świetle doświadczeń międzynarodowych, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw.
